Understanding the The Value of Shares

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Back to Home Because of Capitalism Do It For Yourself Gambling or Investing
Why Shares Over Property? The Rat Race Internalising Share Ops
Portfolios With AI Answers from AI Do You Get It?



Because of Capitalism

Capitalism

€ Here in Australia, we live in a capitalist system where very few people willingly buy share capital. It surely makes sense to make use of the most financially rewarding part of the system. We are made to invest in Superannuation to harness the power of shares, but most think it is only worthwhile because of the tax discount. In fact, most of the benefit comes from the higher returning assets that Superfunds invest in, i.e. shares.

€ What if you could have something like Super that can fund your life, your house and your retirement, well before you reach retirement age. Odds are you will never have that. Not because it is difficult. Anyone can open a share trading account and invest in minutes and there are simple strategies to follow. It is a rare thing because share investing is scary to newcomers, looks complicated and exclusive, is impossible to get good advice about and really spooks people when markets fall (among other things).

€ As a beginner investor, you will need to understand the value of shares and how to get started where few ever do.

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Do It For Yourself

Do It For Yourself

€ To break through the barriers and make it look easy is going to take a D.I.Y. approach and a bit of research. You will not be able to get professional advice here or likely anywhere else. It is hard to know who to trust. But it is time to consider investing in shares and you are in the right place to learn about it. Getting it right pays you back many times over for a small effort and your chosen level of commitment. This website can help you with many topics including the basics about shares, a strategy example, example investments, how to buy and own shares and, on this page, understanding the value of shares.

€ The younger you are, the more you have to gain. You can start small with just enough knowledge and learn as you go how to manage a bigger investment. Unlike Super, there is no limit to what you can put in so you can go as big as you want. Your own holdings may dwarf your Super by the time you can use it. You can also sell some of your stock when needed and have that money in just 2 business days. This site can make you aware of what it takes to get started. Then it will be up to you to bring it all together. If you have any questions or comments feel free to contact the Stock Scholar here: thestockscholar@klevah.com.au

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Gambling or Investing

Gambling or Investing

€ Some see the share market as a casino. It is a bit like a casino where you have the house’s odds. Having the odds stacked in your favour means that you should always eventually win if you play correctly. Imagine sitting at a roulette table that was slightly in your favour rather than against. Making a big bet would be almost just as risky as before. Making very small bets wastes the opportunity. The sensible strategy would be to continuously bet a balanced amount that you can literally afford to bet all day.

€ Shares, when chosen sensibly, are a bet made all day and night for as long as you hold them with the odds in your favour. This is the difference between gambling and investing. When investing, it is not a case of betting only what you can afford to lose but rather investing what you can afford to be without for a long time. Share prices move up and down a lot, so you need to give a well-chosen investment a good number of years to be confident that it will succeed. Owning individual companies’ shares without diversifying is where things become riskier. This is why it makes sense for small investors to invest through share funds like ETFs.

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Why Shares Over Property?

Shares Over Property

€ Share investments have a lot of advantages over property for those new to investing. Shares can be bought in very small or very large amounts in an instant on the exchange. When selling, whatever fraction needed can be sold just as quickly with the money back in your account in 2 business days. Brokerage costs are small. Property takes time and high costs to purchase and sell. It usually requires a large deposit and loan. Stamp Duty sets the investment back tens of thousands of dollars from the start. There is a lot of extra work in managing tenants, insurance, damage, upkeep, taxes, etc. that costs time or money to get someone else to do it.

€ When you make continual small investments in shares you gain from having more of your money invested more of the time as well as the higher rate of return shares offer. With property investing, your investments are lumpy. You must save a lot to eventually buy a house and then save as much again to add the next one. In between these asset purchases your incremental savings are going into paying down debt. It is good to pay down debts once you have them, but the returns on each dollar saved is lower than property or share returns. Only buying the property gives you an appreciating asset. Paying down the debt is saving at a moderate rate of return. Share investing gets the best returns out of your savings dollars as they become available – fluently growing your wealth without attached debt.

€ With shares you can make your purchases and then set and forget your investments if you wish. Only a small amount of work is needed at tax time. For all the extra effort involved with property you might hope for a better return but in fact shares generally win here too. The clearest reason why investors just starting out should choose shares is because you can make very small investments to begin with. Then, invested in just the same shares or ETFs, you can grow (or sell down) your holdings over time at whatever pace you desire. Shares crush the competition for their high returns, simplicity and flexibility.

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The Rat Race

The Rat Race

€ If you want to win the Rat Race then you need to get ahead of your fellow mammals. You need a point of difference to be able to climb up the ultra-competitive housing ladder or to be financially independent and retire early. Most people work hard and save what they can. To beat the others, you could put your savings into property to get a foothold in the housing market. That will stop rising prices from getting away from you. If you invest in shares, then you can grow your invested savings at a faster rate than house prices and work your way up the ladder. Join the silent minority taking the shortcuts to where you want to be. Grow your net wealth faster than your pay grade.

€ Ultimately shares are the way to win the Rat Race because they are investments in the companies that employ the others you are up against. Once you have enough others racing for you then you can quit the Race and win. So many people around the world can be giving it their all to grow your retirement income or buy you a house. They work for you now. Super allows older people to do this. Why wait until you get hold of your Super?

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Internalising Share Opportunities

Internalising Share Opportunities

€ One of the keys to investing is to internalise the true value of doing things. Good savers are good at weighing the value of a purchase now against all the things they could buy in the future. Great savers also sense the interest benefit over time and have made sure they are getting a good rate. Everyone knows that there are benefits to making these decisions well, but we need to understand, believe and live these benefits before they enter our reflex behaviour.

€ Shares are an extreme version of this because their rate of return is so high but so few people make use of them outside of Super. They do not understand how much more their money could be achieving. People who have experienced successful share investing just process the consequences of their financial decisions better and save and invest more as a result. Without a history of share investing success, you will need to absorb the lessons another way. One way is to make practical financial calculations to understand what is possible. It will be easiest to ask AI to make any kind of calculation. Calculate what the results of different investments would be over different time periods. Be creative.

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Portfolios With AI

Portfolios With AI

€ You can ask AI very specific and detailed questions about complex financial calculations to get exactly the information you are looking for. You can then ask it to adjust its calculations in various ways to help you get all kinds of answers and teach you about the compounding powers of shares. Note that the share indices mentioned on this site have had reliably good returns over time, but move around a lot in price over shorter periods. The calculations will assume the shares increase in value in a smooth way where it is in reality quite volatile. Over longer time periods the movements would be expected to follow their average returns more closely.

€ This is an example of asking AI when you might be able to retire by putting savings into shares rather than cash. We made a lot of assumptions that you can change such as $1m being a good amount to retire on today. We asked ChatGPT and Google Gemini.

€ We asked AI: “We are making the following investments.
A $25,000 lump sum and $10,000 annual contribution in share A at 9% made up of 4% in dividends and 5% in unrealised capital gain.
As well as a $25,000 lump sum and $10,000 annual contribution in share B at 11% made up of 4% in dividends and 7% in unrealised capital gain.
Only dividends are taxed. Other gains are unrealised capital gains.
Our marginal tax rate is 30%. Inflation is 2.5%.
Contributions are fixed in nominal terms and are not indexed for inflation. How long will it take for me to reach $1m in today’s money?
How long would it take the same total contributions in cash at 5% tax free?
Please show today’s value and future value in your answers.”

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Answers from AI

Answers from AI

€ ChatGPT answered that it would take 24 years to get to $1.9m, which is the amount that is worth $1m in today’s money after all those years of inflation. Cash at 5% was 37 years to get $2.5m as an amount worth $1m in today’s money after three decades of inflation.

€ Google Gemini gave 24 years to get an amount worth $1m in today’s value from the shares and 40 years for the cash. Gemini also offered up that only $530,000 was invested in shares to reach the target, while cash needing to be saved was $850,000. We were even generous to cash as we made it an historically high 5% for that long a period as well as tax free. That is intended as being mortgage offset funds. The 9% and 11% figures come from the S&P/ASX 200 and S&P 500 which are the most commonly held, and arguably safest, share investments in Australia and the US.

€ We carefully crafted the question above to get precise answers. Use this starting point as a template for asking your own. You can change the figures and ask for other answers such as how much you would have in 15 years. You can ask it for details it has not shown you yet. You could ask how much you need to increase the contributions to reach $1m in 10 years. Change the variables such as the Inflation Rate and your Marginal Tax Rate. Best not to ask it how to invest for you. It is better used for finding resources and objective calculations. Ask it to find the info you want on the ATO website.

€ In reality, you could enjoy your share gains sooner and even run down your portfolio a bit before getting access to Super. You may put your share gains back into a house instead. This is just an example to point out that AI can help you understand what is possible. Play around with the assumptions and types of questions.

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Do You Get It?

Do You Get It?

€ If you can internalise the opportunity of shares then in time you may be able to believe in meeting all your financial goals sooner. This may mean a better home or taking the pressure off your salary and eventually enjoying an early retirement. Do not just ask AI what you should do overall (it can help with research ideas to a degree) but ask it to do calculations like those above for you, to give you a better picture.

€ You may have heard that shares are good but understanding just how good they are over time can give you the motivation to act. This is the whole point of the exercise. There is a massive opportunity here that needs to be understood first and then taken. Nobody has all of the answers when they get started so learning while building a portfolio is what it takes to succeed. Tell us you are not interested in shares after you have done the maths. Well, after AI has done the maths.

€ To learn how to do the maths on your phone calculator - Click Here
To learn more about the basics, visit the All About Shares page next - Click Here

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Quotations

"Our favourite holding period is forever."
-- Warren Buffett, 1930-, US Investor --


"The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily."
-- Charlie Munger, 1924-2023, US Investor --